Why does my forex account have overnight charges?

You are probably referring to rollerover interest. Sometimes you lose this amount overnight, but other times you find money credited into your trading account overnight.

In the spot forex market, all trades must be settled in 2 business days. A rollover refers to the process of closing open position for today’s value date, and the opening of the same position for the next day’s value date, at a price reflecting the difference in interest rates between the two currencies.

In accordance with international banking practices, Forex brokers automatically roll over all open positions to the next date at 5 PM EST for settlement.

Rollover involves exchanging the position being held for a position expiring the following settlement date. For example, for trades executed on Monday, the value date is Wednesday.

However, if a position is opened on Monday and held overnight, the value date is now Thursday. The exception is a position opened and held overnight on Wednesday. The normal value date would be Saturday; because banks are closed on Saturday the value date is actually the following Monday. Due to the weekend, positions held overnight on Wednesday incur or earn an extra two days of interest.

Trades with a value date that falls on a holiday will also incur or earn additional interest. Forex Traders can earn interest on rollovers, depending on the direction of their positions and interest rate differential between the two currencies involved.

For instance, the primary interest rates in Great Britain are much higher than in Japan, so if a trader buys GBP, he/she will earn interest at 5 PM EST time. on the other hand, if he/she sells GBP in this currency pair, he/she will pay interest at 5 PM EST time.

Overnight Interest/Rollover is automatically paid to a client’s account after buying a currency with greater Interest Rate in its country, and charged to a client’s account if the country issuing this currency has smaller Primary Interest Rates.

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Bollinger Band Alert 25 Apr 2012

Bollinger Bands, developed by John Bollinger, comprised of a simple moving average (20 period) and an upper and low bands, known as Bollinger Bands. These bands are derived from a two standard deviation of the moving average. As such, 95% of the market actions will be captured within these bands. However, the bands do not generate buy or sell signal. Hence, when price is hugging or penetrated either side of the band it only indicates whether the price is high or low on a relative basis. However it can alert one to low risk buying/selling opportunities.

Bollinger Band Percent denotes where the price is in relation to the bands. %b = 100% at the upper band and =0% at the lower band. The calculation is as follows:
Bollinger Percent B = (Close – Bollinger Lower Bound) / (Bollinger Upper Bound – Bollinger Lower Bound).

We ran a report to give you a glance at all the Bollinger Band numbers.

GBPUSD is trading at its Bollinger Upper Band on both Daily and Weekly Charts

USDCAD is trading at its Bollinger Lower Band on Daily Charts

NZDUSD is trading at its Bollinger Lower Band on Daily Charts

Download the report here

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Hong Kong Equities Far From Entering Momentum Regime?

Market breadth analysis provides a glimpse into how investors feel about overall markets in general.

The Hang Seng Index is a free float capitalization-weighted index of selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Of the members in the Hang Seng Index, we would like to know how many are trading above its own 200 days moving average. The moving average is largely accepted to be representative of the long term trend of the stock. The percentage of the index members trading above the 200 days moving average gives us an idea how the market is trading.

We plot this from 2004 to today.

Hang Seng Index Percent Of Members Above 200 Days Moving Average Compared To Index Value

Data source: Bloomberg

From 2004 to 2007, 80% to 100% of index members are trading above their 200 days moving average. At it’s low in 2009, almost all members are trading below their 200 days moving average.

Clearly during a period of momentum during 2004 to 2007 within our data set, the high percentage of members is stable at around 80% – 100%. Prices continue to soar as observed by the soaring index value. This sort of price behavior is representative of strong momentum.

Hang Seng Index Percent Of Members Above 200 Days Moving Average Compared To Index Value

Data source: Bloomberg

For the past year, we see a steady decline in the percentage of index members trading above the 200 days moving average from Apr 2011 to Sep 2011, hitting a low of 10%. As of 24th Apr 2012, 69% of Hang Seng Index members are trading above their 200 days moving average.

We are still one notch away from the sustained 80%-100% seen during periods of extreme momentum.

Watch this space as we perform such market breadth analysis and monitoring on a regular basis.

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Can Bullish Market Breadth Lead Australia Equities Higher?

Market breadth analysis provides a glimpse into how investors feel about overall markets in general.

The S&P ASX 200 index includes the 200 largest index eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float adjusted market capitalization. It is widely considered Australia’s preeminent benchmark index.

Of these 200 members in the S&P ASX 200 index, we would like to know how many are trading above its own 200 days moving average. The moving average is largely accepted to be representative of the long term trend of the stock. The percentage of the index members trading above the 200 days moving average gives us an idea how the market is trading.

We plot this from 2004 to today.

S&P ASX 200 Percent Members Above 200 Day Moving Average

Data source: Bloomberg

From 2004 to 2007, 80% to 90% of index members are trading above their 200 days moving average. From 2007 to today, it was more of a wild ride with a speedy recovery in 2009 following one of the worst crisis in 2008.

S&P ASX 200 Percent Member Trading Above 200 Days Moving Average 1 Year

Data source: Bloomberg

For the past year, we see a steady increase in the percentage of index members trading above the 200 days moving average. As of 24th Apr 2012, 68% of S&P ASX 200 members are trading above their 200 days moving average.

How then does this market breadth analysis look compared to the index value?

S&P ASX 200 Index: Percent Of Members Above 200 Days Moving Average Compared To Index Value

Data Source: Bloomberg

Clearly during a period of momentum during 2004 to 2007 with our data set, the high percentage of members is stable at around 80%. Prices continue to soar as observed by the soaring index value. This sort of price behavior is cause for caution.

S&P ASX 200 Index: Percent Of Members Above 200 Days Moving Average Compared To Index Value

Data Source: Bloomberg

While we observed that most members are already trading its 200 days moving average, the index value has been flat for the most part of 1 year.

Should the majority of the market continue to trade above it’s 200 days moving average, it could be a sign that a momentum market regime is kicking into place and the market would advance as a whole.

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Why Different Trading Signals on Different Platforms?

Most traders own a few trading accounts, some demo, some live, in addition to the mobile platforms of their respective brokers. You may realize that the same indicator can be plotted, but you get a different trigger and signal depending on which broker you use.

This is what we encountered today on the oanda MT4 platform:

singapore forex trading

Notice how we have a weak Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen cross on the EURUSD hourly chart, with prices already touching the bottom of the kumo.

However, if you are using forex.com, this is the picture you see on the same time frame and period:

singapore forex broker

Tenkan Sen only just crossd Kijun Sen, and prices are still above the kumo. We all know that these 2 pictures can paint a different story for Ichimoku traders so what is happening here?

The key difference lies in the fact that oanda allows trading on weekends, therefore plotting candles whenever there is a price change, throughout the weekend. On the other hand, Forex.com does not have weekend trading so on weekends you do not have any candles plotted. This explains the data points discrepancies when the indicators are plotted on Metatrader.

So which is better? On one hand oanda may be accurate since it factors in more data points through out the weekend. On the other hand, one can argue that the weekend prices are not liquid and therefore should be disregarded. Our take is that if you trade on weekdays, then only look at weekdays, and vice versa. Also, make sure that your charting broker platform is the same as your execution broker platform to prevent any confusion.

We prefer to only look at data excluding weekend trading, across our platforms and devices.

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Australian Dollar Consolidates Following Recent Sell-Offs

AUDUSD Daily Chart 23 Apr 2012

The Australia Dollar has been under selling pressure and looks to consolidate into a sideways movement in the near term.

The Kumo resistance region marked by the purple region above current prices suggests Australian Dollar has more tendency to trend lower following this consolidation.

Traders might want to initiate short positions when prices are near the upper bolinger band around 1.0436, at the time of writing.

 

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How to predict future prices with Ichimoku

One of the powerful benefits of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo price action analysis is that we can see into the future. More specifically, we can accurately determine future support and resistance of any asset class, which are the key components of any technical analysis.

The distinct kumo “cloud” you see painted across Ichimoku charts is a forward looking indicator, with current prices painting the cloud 26 periods forward. Put another way, today’s kumo cloud was painted by prices 26 periods ago. This mechanism allows the indicator to display future support and resistance, a very useful function for traders. We will see this in play in a bit.

This article analyses the daily EURUSD chart using the Ichimoku lens. Before that, this is what the chart looks like naked:

how to predict forex prices

What you can probably tell is prices being locked in a range between 1.2993 and 1.3484, highlighted by red horizontal lines. This is happening after the strong down trend from October 2011 to mid of January 2011.  At this point, you probably do not have enough information to enter a trade. Let’s bring in the Ichimoku indicator for more price action insight:

 how to trade ichimoku

We have confirmation of a ranging market from the following:

  • The red horizontal line called the Kijun Sen is mostly flat. Since this is the 26 period 50% equilibrium line by definition, a flat Kijun Sen suggests that price is ranging. It is still flat.
  • In addition, we see repeated kumo twists, whereby we see the could alternating between bullish and bearish signals, another sign of range-bound movements.

At this juncture, the question most traders are trying to answer will be, “are prices going up or down from here?”. And our conclusion is that a bearish move is more likely, here’s why:

  • There is resistance at the Kumo shadow resistance zone, formed by the flat kumo tops from the past. Price tend to face resistance anywhere under this zone.
  • Tenkan Sen is below Kijun Sen, suggesting short term bearishness.
  • Chikou Span, the blue lagging line that is trying hard to break above the candlesticks and kumo, has failed to do so and looks to have continued resistance ahead.

What do the future kumo clouds tell us?

  • Senkou Span A is below Senkou Span B; these are the 2 dotted lines forming the kumo with green below red, a bearish future.
  • Future kumo is thin with no gradient, suggesting a weak resistance. Even if prices burst above the kumo, it will meet the kumo shadow resistance zone.

In conclusion, the bearish factors outweigh any bullish indications for the EURUSD forex chart. Bearishness can be confirmed on a break below the near term support kumo floor at 1.2971. Short term traders can also keep this information in mind when trading smaller time frames.

 

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Weekend Reading List

POST-MASSIVE BEAR MARKET RALLIES (Pragmatic Capitalism)

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (4/20/12) (The Big Picture)

Fear Barometer Bubbling (SurlyTrader)

Cambodia Joins Stocks Party (WSJ)

Visualizing the Bear (MarketSci)

Insanely Expensive Gadgets for the Elite 1 Percent (Wired)

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Singapore Airlines Quick Look

Singapore Airlines Dividend History

Historically this is the dividends you would get from any investments in Singapore Airlines.

Singapore Airlines Weekly Chart1

Chart above is the Weekly Chart of SIA.

SIA is in a long term down trend. There would still be more downward pressure.
The last low made in 2008 serves as key support level @ 7.91

We expect near term (next few months) prices to test 11.18. SIA is entering a short term consolidation with more sideways movement to be expected near term.

Singapore Airlines Weekly Chart 2

The 61.8% retracement level @ 11.20 is coincidentally near the 11.81 level we mentioned earlier. Traders should pay attention to this key resistance region of 11.81-11.20.

Breaking above this level, we should expect prices to try testing 12.22 next.

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How to Configure MT4 Email Alert

Google gmail, hotmail, yahoo and whatever email address you use, this method of setting up Metatrader 4 email alert works.

What a pain searching for a solution, especially gmail users! We just tried an it’s crazy. If the search led you here, this will be your final stop. We found the best way, and we took under 5 minutes. Here you go, one universal free method for any and everyone to get that email alert:

Sign up for a free email account with GMX at http://www.gmx.com

Open up your MT4 -> Tools -> Options -> Email. At the screen, tick Enable then use the following info for the rest.

SMTP Server: mail.gmx.com:587
SMTP Login : yourusername@gmx.com
SMTP Passsword: your gmx email password
From: yourusername@gmx.com
To: email address you want the message to go to (should be the email you frequent)

RESTART your MT4 program for the changes to take effect.

This method worked for us on the first try. It should for you too.

Since you are here, why not check out some free EAs too!

 

Cheers,

Glenn & Jay

Founders, AsiaPacFinance.com

Facebook Link Twitter Link RSS Link

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