Learn Trading Online: How To Use Trailing Stop Loss

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When you enter a trading position, you will ask yourself where to place the stop loss level. And when the trade works in your favor, you will ask yourself how to meaningfully trail your stop loss to protect profits.

Fortunately for us, there are numerous stop loss strategies to help us with these 2 questions. We will discuss the Parabolic SAR stop loss method.

The Parabolic SAR is a technical indicator that is used by many traders to determine the direction of an asset’s momentum and the point in time when this momentum has a higher-than-normal probability of switching directions. Sometimes known as the “stop and reversal system”, the parabolic SAR was developed by the famous technician Welles Wilder, creator of the relative strength index, and it is shown as a series of dots placed either above or below an asset’s price on a chart.

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In the chart above, we see this indicator as the purple dots trailing prices. In a bull trend, the dots appear below prices; and above prices in a bear trend. As such, it is very useful as a stop loss indicator.

Upon entering a long position, a trader would move up his stop loss level to the dots, which follows prices closer over time. The 2 horizontal black lines you see are the levels which were “taken out”, after trailing the respective dots.

You can see how the Parabolic Stop Loss can serve as a convenient indicator to place stop loss levels. Note that this stop loss indicator works best in trending markets, as it can “whipsaw” as well.

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Learn Trading Online: How to Trade Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

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To construct the commodity channel index (CCI), compare the current price with a moving average over a specific period. Next, normalize the oscillator values by using a divisor, based on mean deviation. The CCI fluctuates, in a constant range, from positive 100, to negative 100.

>Positive 100 represents overbought situations, and <negative 100 represents oversold situations. 100 and -100 are represented by the dotted lines in at the bottom of this EURUSD Chart. The CCI line is in turquoise, oscillating between 100 and -100.

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Trend lines (in black diagonally) can be drawn on the CCI. Notice that divergence happens, when the CCI makes lower highs, while prices are still making higher highs. This is an indication of a potential reversal, and we see CCI turning before prices did. This is useful for traders timing the markets.

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Equities Technical Outlook Jan 2012

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Cautiously Bullish

We apply Ichimoku Analysis on the S&P 500 weekly chart below. Cautiously bullish is what we would term it.

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We are Bullish for these reasons:

  • Medium strength tenkan sen- kijun sen Crossover
  • Chikou Span is into clear open space above price and cloud
  • Price bullish Kumo break

We are cautious for these reasons:

  • Future kumo is thin, sideways and twisting, indicating highly likely consolidation period
  • Price is still below a long term trend line

Expect Consolidation.

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Learn Trading Online: How to Trade MACD

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The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), shows 2 lines.

  • The faster (blue) line, called the MACD line, is the difference, between 2 exponentially smoothed moving averages of closing prices
  • The slower (red) line, called the signal line, is usually a 9 period exponentially smoothed average of the MACD line.
  • The default values are 12, 26 and 9
  • A crossing by the faster MACD line below/above the slower signal line is a sell/buy signal. This is indicated by the vertical blue line periods in the S&P 500 chart below.
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  • An overbought/oversold condition is present when the lines are too far above/below the zero line. See rectangular boxes below.

Crossing above, and below, the zero line, is another way, to generate buy and sell signals.

Divergences appear between the trend of the MACD lines, and the price lines.

A negative, or bearish divergence (see blue arrows below), exists when the MACD lines, are well above the zero line and start to weaken, while prices continue to trend higher. This is often, a warning of a market top.

A positive, or bullish divergence, exists when the MACD lines, are well below the zero line, and start to move up ahead, of the price line. This is often, an early sign of a market bottom.

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The histogram, consists of vertical bars, that show the difference, between the two MACD lines. The histogram, has a zero line, of its own.

When the MACD lines, are in positive alignment, meaning the faster line over the slower, the histogram is above its zero line. Crossings by the histogram above and below its zero line coincide with actual MACD crossover buy, and sell signals.

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Another use of the histogram, is spotting when the spread, between the two lines, is widening, or narrowing. When the histogram is over its zero line, but starts to fall toward the zero line, the uptrend is weakening.

Conversely, when the histogram is below its zeroline, and starts to move upward toward the zero line, the downtrend is losing its momentum. The histogram turns provide earlier warnings that the current trend is losing momentum.

Turns in the histogram back towards the zero line always precede the actual crossover signals. Histograms turns are best used, for spotting early exit signals, from existing positions.

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Learn Trading Online: Oscillators – Momentum

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In general, when the oscillator reaches an extreme value in either the upper or lower end of the band, this suggests that the current price move may have gone too far, too fast, and is due for a correction or consolidation.

Traders should be buying when the oscillator line is in the lower end of the band, and selling in the upper end. When it’s value reaches an extreme reading, near the upper or lower end of its boundaries, it implies that the Market is being oversold, or overbought.

Divergence, between the oscillator, and the price action, when the oscillator is in an extreme position, also helps the trader time the market.

Traders also use the Crossing of the midpoint line. This can give important trading signals in the direction of the price trend. Some traders ascertain the overall trend, and use oscillators, on smaller time frames, to time their entry better.

During trading ranges, oscillators work well, until such time when the market breaks upside on overbought conditions, and breaks downside on oversold conditions. It is generally well regarded to place less emphasis on oscillators at the beginning of trends, and place greater emphasis at tails ends of trends.

We will start by discussing, the “Momentum”. It measures, the velocity of price changes, as opposed to the actual price levels themselves. It is measured by continually taking price differences for a fixed time interval.

The commonly used 10 day momentum is shown here on EURUSD, as the blue side way moving line:

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Traders like to use the mid horizontal green line, to generate buy and sell signals:

  • A crossing above the mid line, would be a buy signal
  • A crossing below the mid line would be a sell signal

We indicated such opportunities with the purple vertical lines above.


When the closing price, is greater than that 10 days ago, meaning prices moved higher, then a positive value is plotted above the green horizontal line.

Momentum is measuring the rate of change. If prices are rising, and the momentum line is above the mid line (green), and rising, this means the uptrend is accelerating. The logic is the same as momentum in physics.

If the up sloping momentum line flatten out, this means that the new gains being achieved by the latest prices, are the same as the gains 10 days earlier. Prices still advance, but the rate of ascent, has leveled off.

When the momentum drops towards zero, the uptrend in prices, is still in force, but at a decelerating rate. Momentum line leads price action.

The rate of change is a ratio of the most recent closing price, to a price a certain number of days in the past. If the latest price, is higher than the price 10 days ago, resulting rate of change value will be above 100. If the last close is below 10 days ago, the ratio would be below 100.

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Learn Trading Online: Bollinger Bands

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Construction

Two trading bands, are placed around a moving average, 2 standard deviations, above and below the moving average, forming the trading band.

In the chart below, we see the bollinger band plotted on the S&P 500. The solid brown line in the center of the channel is the 20 period moving average. 2 standard deviations from this line you see the 2 brown dotted lines. These 3 lines together form the Bollinger Band.

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The common period, to use for the moving average, is 20 periods. 95% of the price data, will fall between the two trading bands.

Price Targets

Prices are considered to be over bought, when they touch the upper band. And oversold, when they touch the lower band. Traders Use the upper, and lower bands, as price targets.

If prices bounces off the lower band, and cross above the 20 day average, the upper band becomes the price target.

If prices bounces off the upper band and cross below the 20 day average, the lower band becomes the price target.

Volatility

The width of bollinger band expands, and contracts, based on the last 20 days volatility. When price volatility is high, the distance between the 2 bands will widen. There is a tendency for the bands to alternate between expansion, and contraction. When the bands are far apart, it is often a sign, that the current trend, may be ending.

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How To Trade Moving Averages

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Moving averages, and its variations, are some of the most commonly used technical analysis tools. It is a trend following indicator, and as such, never anticipates, it only reacts. Some traders, see the moving average, as a curving trend line.

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The above chart is the EURUSD daily chart with the 20 SMA (Green) and 55 SMA SMA (Green) plotted onto candlesticks. You will notice that the Shorter term averages, Green in this example, are more sensitive to the price action, while longer term averages are less sensitive. Shorter term averages follow prices much more closely.

Using 2 moving averages, a buy or sell signal is produced when the shorter average crosses above or below the longer average, respectively. In the chart above, we see a sell signal where the purple vertical line is, and the green 20 SMA crosses below the red 55 SMA. As of this writing, this simple strategy is up over 500 pips.

The popular combinations are the 5 and 20 periods averages, 10 and 50 periods averages, 20 and 55 period averages.

Moving averages should be used in conjunction with other confirmation indicators to reduce whipsaws. Also, with the important trend following rule, always let winners run, and cut losers short.

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Learn Trading Online: Trend Line Breakout

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US equities are fairing slightly better than Asian markets in January 2012. As we can see from the chart below, there was significant resistance formed by a downward 45 degree trendline, which was tested 4 times and only broke through on the 5th test, at the start of 2012.

Once the resistance trend line is broken, it now forms a support level. A new support line can be drawn by connecting the recent price lows upwards. Watch trading videos on AsiaPacFinance.com and learn how to improve your trading with trend lines.

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EURUSD Forex Strategy: 900 PIPS in ONE TRADE

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This chart is mind blowing, and we at AsiaPacFinance.com are proud to be the creators of this strategy we call the APF Drift. Take a look:

The red sloping line is a resistance lines which told us to sell. As every trading textbook will tell you, multiple confirmations increase your probability, so we entered a short position when the blue line below crossed below zero. The vertical red line is a very clear instruction to sell.

Just one trade, and 2 months later the strategy is up over 900 pips. Easy to use and powerful, you can get this strategy, all the indicators you see, and more online trading videos here.

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Short Rally in S&P as Predicted

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In December 2011, we wrote here about significant downside protection from meaningful support zones, as well as a potential short rally. And it is playing out just like we fore-casted:

What do we have into the middle of January?

A bullish breakout of the S&P 500. Using Ichimoku analysis, we note the following bullish signs:

1. Price has broken above the October high of around 1290

2. Price has broken above the kumo cloud

3. Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen

4. Chikou Span has broken out into clear skies

5. Future kumo is sloping up and thickening

The question you may have is, what next?

We have drawn a blue diagonal trend line which will serve as support. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests bullish momentum, although we know fundamentals continue to be fragile.

Price can be expected to bounce along the trend line. Should it break below the trend line, expect turbulence into the future kumo. And if it breaks below the kumo, the bear trend will begin.

What about the outlook in Asia?

From a Fundamental perspective, P/E ratios indicate undervaluation, below their long term averages as shown here:

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